Caribbean Stud Poker Online
This game is a variation of poker played on a blackjack sized table. Following is how the game is played:
Play starts with each player making an ante bet in a designated square. Each player then receives five cards face down. Players may examine their own cards but may not share information with each other. The dealer also receives five cards, four face down and one face up. At this point each player has two options: raise or fold. If the player raises he puts twice his ante bet in the raise box. If the player folds he must relinquish his cards to the dealer, who will collect his ante bet. After all players have made their plays the dealer exposes his own cards. If he does not qualify with at least an ace and king then all remaining ante bets pay even money and all raise bets push. If the dealer does qualify then each remaining player hand is individually compared against the dealer's hand, and the best poker hand wins in each case. If the dealer has the higher hand the player loses both ante and raise. If the player has the higher hand the ante pays even money and the raise pays according to the following pay table.
| Hand |
Payoff |
| Royal flush |
100 to 1 |
| Straight flush |
50 to 1 |
| Four of a kind |
20 to 1 |
| Full house |
7 to 1 |
| Flush |
5 to 1 |
| Straight |
4 to 1 |
| Three of a kind |
3 to 1 |
| Two pair |
2 to 1 |
| Pair |
1 to 1 |
| Ace/King |
1 to 1 |
Strategy
The player should raise on any pair or better, fold on anything less than
ace/king, and should sometimes raise and sometimes fold on ace/king.
To play Caribbean stud perfectly would involve memorizing the charts in the appendix on when exactly to raise on ace/king.
Of course nobody is going to do that so a more simplified strategy is clearly
called for. By studying the appendix you will notice certain patterns of when
the odds favor raising and when they don't. These patterns
in the following suggested rules of thumb on when to raise on ace/king:
- Raise if the dealer's card is a 2 through queen and matches one of yours.
- Raise if the dealer's card is an ace or king and you have a queen or jack in your hand.
- Raise if the dealer's rank does not match any of yours and you have a queen in your hand and
the dealer's card is less than your fourth highest card.
This strategy is unique to this page but is not the only strategy I have heard of. Following
are various other strategies, their total loss based on all possible 19,933,230,517,200
combinations of hands, the house edge, and the "element of risk" (defined below). The
"matching rank" strategy calls for raising on any pair or better and on ace/king when one
of the player's cards matches the rank of the dealer's up card (which lowers the odds of
the dealer forming a pair).
| Strategy Statistics in Caribbean Stud Poker |
| Strategy |
Total loss |
House edge |
Element of risk |
| Perfect strategy |
1,041,372,912,372 |
5.224% |
2.555% |
| Three rules of thumb (above) |
1,041,417,758,724 |
5.225% |
2.554% |
| Raise on ace/king/jack/8/3 or better |
1,059,715,400,580 |
5.316% |
2.596% |
| Matching rank |
1,063,176,931,284 |
5.334% |
2.616% |
| Raise on any pair or better |
1,090,272,101,460 |
5.470% |
2.738% |
| Raise on any ace/king or better |
1,132,600,203,540 |
5.682% |
2.672% |
| Playing blind (raise on everything) |
3,310,360,338,060 |
16.607% |
5.536% |
House Edge, Element of Risk
Any respectable book will tell you that the house edge in
Caribbean stud poker is about 5.2%. This is true but I have always felt it unfairly
makes the game look like a bad bet. The reason is in how the house edge is defined,
the ratio of average money lost to the original bet. In Caribbean stud the player will
roughly wager just as much in raises as in antes, and this additional money bet is not
considered in the house edge statistic.
For purposes
of comparison to other games I think it is better to consider the ratio of
money lost to total money wagered, which I refer to as the "element of risk." The element
of risk using perfect strategy is 2.555%, which makes is look more competitive compared
to other games, although still not one of the best. It is interesting to note that
the element of risk for my three rules of thumb is better than for perfect strategy! That
is because raising on slightly sub optimal plays is actually a better bet than the game
as a whole and brings down the average expected loss.
Credit should be given to Stanley Ko, Professor John M. Gwynn Jr., and the late Peter Griffin for being the first to do a
thorough study of Caribbean stud poker. Due largely on the complexities of when to raise on ace/king
this is one of the most complicated casino games to analyze. Thanks to their analysis,
which they kindly shared with me, I had something to check my work against.
Statistics
The following tables shows the various possible outcomes in Caribbean stud poker,
their net return per initial bet, their probability, and their total return (product
of probability and net return).
| Statistics for Caribbean Stud Poker |
| Event/winning hand |
Pays |
Number |
Total return |
Probability |
Average return |
| Ace/king | 3 | 18,505,682,208 | 55,517,046,624 | 0.00092838 | 0.00278515 |
| Pair | 3 | 2,324,742,321,600 | 6,974,226,964,800 | 0.11662647 | 0.34987941 |
| Two pair | 5 | 488,012,139,360 | 2,440,060,696,800 | 0.02448234 | 0.12241170 |
| Three of a kind | 7 | 234,242,908,320 | 1,639,700,358,240 | 0.01175138 | 0.08225964 |
| Straight | 9 | 43,805,516,100 | 394,249,644,900 | 0.00219761 | 0.01977851 |
| Flush | 11 | 21,856,990,280 | 240,426,893,080 | 0.00109651 | 0.01206161 |
| Full house | 15 | 16,624,475,280 | 249,367,129,200 | 0.00083401 | 0.01251012 |
| Four of a kind | 41 | 2,832,435,800 | 116,129,867,800 | 0.0001421 | 0.00582594 |
| Straight flush | 101 | 156,929,720 | 15,849,901,720 | 0.00000787 | 0.00079515 |
| Royal flush | 201 | 16,759,740 | 3,368,707,740 | 0.00000084 | 0.00016900 |
| Ante only | 1 | 4,532,514,033,720 | 4,532,514,033,720 | 0.22738482 | 0.22738482 |
| Push | 0 | 321,623,100 | 0 | 0.00001614 | 0 |
| Fold | -1 | 9,523,005,974,460 | -9,523,005,974,460 | 0.47774524 | -0.47774524 |
| Dealer wins | -3 | 2,726,592,727,512 | -8,179,778,182,536 | 0.13678629 | -0.41035888 |
| Total | | 19,933,230,517,200 | -1,041,372,912,372 | 1 | -0.05224306 |
Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
In Caribbean Stud Poker the player has the choice to make a side bet
of $1 which pays for hands of a flush or better. The specific payoff
tables vary from place to place but always feature a progressive jackpot,
paying 100% of the jackpot meter for a royal flush and 10% for a straight
flush. In the very unlikely event that two players had a royal flush in
the same hand at most places the first one to the dealer's left would win
the jackpot and the second would win whatever the jackpot is reseeded to,
usually $10,000 or $20,000. Some places would split the jackpot between
the two players. In the event that two players received a straight flush
at the same time the first one to the dealer left would get 10% of the meter
and the second would get 10% of what was left after the first player was
paid. In other words it pays to sit as close as possible to the dealer's
left.
While the expected return varies depending on the size of
the jackpot it is a sucker bet the vast majority of time. The average house
edge is 26.46%.
A manager at Casino Niagara kindly explained how the jackpot meter works. For every dollar
bet 71 cents goes into the jackpot and the casino keeps the other 29 cents. This rate of
contribution can vary from place to place. All payoffs are paid right out of the meter. Every time somebody hits a royal flush the house contributes $10,000 (called the seed) to the next jackpot. The house edge is just under the cut per bet because the casino puts up the initial seed to start a new jackpot after somebody wins the previous one. At the Casino Niagara the house can expect to
receive 18.84 times as much money from the 29% cut as it pays to seed new jackpots.
The table below shows four different payoff tables I have seen. It should not
be interpreted that a casino with a payoff table that pays more for a flush, full house, and
four a kind is being generous. Since these payoffs come out of the meter the
casino is indifferent to any win other than a royal flush (causing them to
have to reseed the meter). The money in the meter can be considered the players money because
it is only a matter of time before somebody wins it all.
Caribbean Stud Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
Payoff Tables |
| Hand |
Payoff |
| Table 1 |
Table 2 |
Table 3 |
Table 4 |
Table 5 |
Table 6 |
Table 7 |
| Royal flush |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Straight flush |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Four of a kind |
$100 |
$150 |
$500 |
$500 |
$500 |
$500 |
$500 |
| Full house |
$75 |
$100 |
$100 |
$150 |
$75 |
$100 |
$150 |
| Flush |
$50 |
$50 |
$50 |
$75 |
$50 |
$75 |
$100 |
Below is a key to some of the casino where each payoff table above can be found.
Unless otherwise stated the casino is in Las Vegas.
- Table 1: Ballys, Paris, California, Las Vegas Club, Hilton
- Table 2: Luxor, Excalibur, Mandaley Bay, Monte Carlo
- Table 3: Bellagio, Venetian, Rio, Every casino in Atlantic City, Casino Niagara (Niagara Falls, Ontario), Grand (Tunica), Gold Strike (Tunica), Ballys (Tunica), Sheraton (Tunica), Isle of Capri (Tunica), Hollywood (Tunica), Harrah's (Tunica)
- Table 4: Harrah's, Circus Circus
- Table 5: Flamingo Hilton
- Table 6: Imperial Palace, Horseshoe (Tunica)
- Table 7: Star City (Pyrmont NSW, Australia)
To calculate an exact payback use the following
formulas where j equals the jackpot meter:
- Table 1: (598,600+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 2: (723,400+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 3: (941,800+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 4: (1,256,700+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 5: (848,200+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 6: (1,069,500+7.6*j)/2,598,960
- Table 7: (1,384,400+7.6*j)/2,598,960
The next table shows what the jackpot level would have to be for various rates of return.
For example to have
a break even chance at the side bet at a casino with payoff table 1 the
meter would have to be at least $263,205. One visit to a casino should illustrate the
typical jackpot levels are extremely far from the breakeven point and hopefully will
convince you to avoid this bet.
Caribbean Stud Progressive Jackpot Side Bet
Expected Returns |
Average
Return |
Jackpot Meter |
| Table 1 |
Table 2 |
Table 3 |
Table 4 |
Table 5 |
Table 6 |
Table 7 |
| 5% | -61,665 | -78,086 | -106,823 | -148,257 | -94,507 | -123,625 | -165,059 |
| 10% | -44,566 | -60,987 | -89,724 | -131,158 | -77,408 | -106,527 | -147,961 |
| 15% | -27,468 | -43,889 | -72,626 | -114,060 | -60,310 | -89,428 | -130,863 |
| 20% | -10,369 | -26,791 | -55,527 | -96,962 | -43,212 | -72,330 | -113,764 |
| 25% | 6,729 | -9,692 | -38,429 | -79,863 | -26,113 | -55,232 | -96,666 |
| 30% | 23,827 | 7,406 | -21,331 | -62,765 | -9,015 | -38,133 | -79,567 |
| 35% | 40,926 | 24,505 | -4,232 | -45,666 | 8,084 | -21,035 | -62,469 |
| 40% | 58,024 | 41,603 | 12,866 | -28,568 | 25,182 | -3,936 | -45,371 |
| 45% | 75,123 | 58,702 | 29,965 | -11,469 | 42,281 | 13,162 | -28,272 |
| 50% | 92,221 | 75,800 | 47,063 | 5,629 | 59,379 | 30,261 | -11,174 |
| 55% | 109,319 | 92,898 | 64,162 | 22,727 | 76,477 | 47,359 | 5,925 |
| 60% | 126,418 | 109,997 | 81,260 | 39,826 | 93,576 | 64,457 | 23,023 |
| 65% | 143,516 | 127,095 | 98,358 | 56,924 | 110,674 | 81,556 | 40,122 |
| 70% | 160,615 | 144,194 | 115,457 | 74,023 | 127,773 | 98,654 | 57,220 |
| 75% | 177,713 | 161,292 | 132,555 | 91,121 | 144,871 | 115,753 | 74,318 |
| 80% | 194,812 | 178,391 | 149,654 | 108,219 | 161,969 | 132,851 | 91,417 |
| 85% | 211,910 | 195,489 | 166,752 | 125,318 | 179,068 | 149,949 | 108,515 |
| 90% | 229,008 | 212,587 | 183,851 | 142,416 | 196,166 | 167,048 | 125,614 |
| 95% | 246,107 | 229,686 | 200,949 | 159,515 | 213,265 | 184,146 | 142,712 |
| 100% | 263,205 | 246,784 | 218,047 | 176,613 | 230,363 | 201,245 | 159,811 |
| 105% | 280,304 | 263,883 | 235,146 | 193,712 | 247,462 | 218,343 | 176,909 |
| 110% | 297,402 | 280,981 | 252,244 | 210,810 | 264,560 | 235,442 | 194,007 |
| 115% | 314,501 | 298,079 | 269,343 | 227,908 | 281,658 | 252,540 | 211,106 |
| 120% | 331,599 | 315,178 | 286,441 | 245,007 | 298,757 | 269,638 | 228,204 |
| 125% | 348,697 | 332,276 | 303,539 | 262,105 | 315,855 | 286,737 | 245,303 |
The house edge will depend directly on the progressive meter at any given
moment. However over the long haul the casino will enjoy a healthy house edge
from the Caribbean Stud side bet. It is typical for the casino to put about 70% to
75% of money bet in the jackpot meter and hold onto the rest. Every casino I have
asked reseeds the jackpot meter with either $10,000 or $20,000 after somebody hits a
royal flush which will
cost 1.539% of money bet per $10,000 the meter is reseeded with. So the house edge
will be 1.539% or 3.078% less than whatever cut
it keeps for every dollar bet. At the Casino Niagara for example where they keep 29%
the house edge will be 27.461%.
Caribbean Stud Poker Online
Micro gaming, and Crypto logic online casinos offer Caribbean Stud Poker. They use different names but the rules are almost the
same. Micro gaming calls the game Cyber stud Poker and Crypto logic call it Caribbean Poker, removing the word Stud.
Crypto logic doubles the royal flush payoff to 200:1. Micro gaming changed almost every hand, making a two pair pay only even money but increasing the payoff on everything from a straight to a royal flush. The following is the
Micro gaming payoff table.
| Micro gaming Payoff Table |
| Hand |
Pays |
| Royal flush |
999:1 |
| Straight flush |
199:1 |
| Four of a kind |
99:1 |
| Full house |
14:1 |
| Flush |
9:1 |
| Straight |
5:1 |
| Three of a kind |
3:1 |
| Two pair |
1:1 |
| Pair |
1:1 |
| Ace/king |
1:1 |
The house edge under the Micro gaming rules is 5.01%. Under the Crypto logic rules the house edge is only slightly better at 5.21%.
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